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Una recerca mostra que les inundacions de les últimes dècades a Europa han canviat respecte a les de segles anteriors

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Un projecte internacional coordinat per la Universitat Tècnica de Viena (TU Wien) i en què han participat investigadors de la Universitat de Barcelona (UB) mostra per primera vegada que les característiques de les inundacions actuals a Europa han canviat respecte a les de segles anteriors. L’estudi, publicat a la revista ‘Nature’, indica que el període actual és un dels que més inundacions té dels últims 500 anys. La recerca revela que les últimes tres dècades representen un els períodes més importants quant a freqüència i magnitud d’inundacions i que, a més, han canviat característiques com la distribució geogràfica, la temperatura de l’aire i l’estacionalitat de les inundacions, amb un percentatge més alt d’episodis a l’estiu.

Pel que fa a la temperatura de l’aire, entre el 1500 i el 1900 les inundacions solien ocórrer amb més freqüència en les fases climàtiques fredes, mentre que a partir del 1990 l’augment d’inundacions té lloc en un context d’escalfament global.

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L’anàlisi de dades ha identificat nou períodes d’inundacions més abundants del que és habitual, així com les regions associades a cadascun. Entre els períodes més notables, hi ha el 1560-1580 (Europa occidental i central); 1760-1800 (la major part d’Europa); 1840-1870 (Europa occidental i meridional) i 1990-2016 (Europa occidental i central).

 

Segons les anàlisis, l’etapa actual és la tercera més severa pel que fa a inundacions. No obstant això, aquesta dada depèn del temps que duri l’actual fase d’inundacions abundants, que encara no ha acabat. En l’actualitat, les inundacions causen danys anuals per valor de més de 100.000 milions d’euros i la tendència general d’aquests episodis continua augmentant.

 

En l’estudi, coordinat per Günter Blöschl, director de l’Institut d’Enginyeria Hidràulica i Gestió de Recursos Hídrics de la TU Wien, hi han participat 34 grups de recerca de tot Europa. Es van analitzar desenes de milers de documents històrics que contenen informació directa i contemporània sobre esdeveniments d’inundacions de tot Europa des del 1500 al 2016.

 

Mariano Barriendos, investigador del Departament d’Història i Arqueologia de la UB, coincideix amb Andrea Kiss (TU Wien), a destacar que el “desafiament particular” de l’estudi ha estat “fer comparables fonts i textos molt diversos dels diferents segles i de cada regió cultural”.

 

Diferències en les inundacions actuals dels rius

 

La comparació amb les reconstruccions de temperatura de l’aire per a tot Europa permet afirmar que els períodes històrics d’inundació més notables han estat substancialment més freds que les fases intermèdies. “Les nostres investigacions anteriors, particularment aquelles centrades en les conques alpines amb presència de glaceres, ens havien revelat que en el passat existia un nombre elevat de períodes d’inundacions severes que coincidien amb anomalies climàtiques fredes”, assenyala Lothar Schulte, coordinador del Grup de Recerca Consolidat en Paleoecologia, Riscos Naturals i Gestió Ambiental (PaleoRisk) del Departament de Geografia de la UB.

 

El resultat sembla contradir l’observació que, en algunes àrees, com el nord-oest d’Europa, el clima més càlid recent està alineat amb inundacions més severes. “El nostre estudi mostra per primera vegada que els mecanismes subjacents han canviat: mentre que en el passat les inundacions van succeir amb més freqüència en condicions més fredes, el cas ara és l’oposat”, observa Maria del Carme Llasat, coordinadora del Grup de Recerca Consolidat de Meteorologia del Departament de Física Aplicada de la UB.

 

L’estacionalitat de les inundacions dins de l’any també ha canviat. Anteriorment, el 41% de les inundacions de l’Europa central eren a l’estiu, en comparació amb el 55% actual. Aquestes tendències estan relacionades amb canvis en la precipitació, l’evaporació i el desglaç i són un indicador important per distingir entre el paper del canvi climàtic i altres factors de control, com la desforestació i la gestió dels rius.

 

Millors dades, millors pronòstics

 

A causa del canvi en els mecanismes de generació d’inundacions, Blöschl aposta per l’ús d’eines per avaluar el risc d’inundacions i per estratègies de gestió que incorporin els canvis recents en l’anàlisi. L’equip d’autors ressalta que la gestió d’inundacions s’ha d’adaptar a aquestes noves realitats perquè, independentment dels esforços necessaris per mitigar el canvi climàtic, els efectes d’aquest fenomen es continuaran veient en les pròximes dècades.

 

 

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